How Turkey’s Counter-Coup Could Be Exploited to Suppress Opposition

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Hemera/Thinkstock(ANKARA, Turkey) — Nearly 60,000 people have been arrested, suspended or fired from their jobs in Turkey since a failed coup led way to a government crackdown aimed at further suppressing dissent in the country, according to some analysts.

Ege Seckin, a political analyst at global analytics firm IHS, said the country is now experiencing a “counter-coup.”

“The government is exploiting its popular momentum to eliminate any kind of opposition,” Seckin said. “Their argument is those who have been arrested or suspended are supporters of Fetullah Gulen (a Turkish Islamic scholar who lives in self-imposed exile in Pennsylvania). It might be the case for some, but they are casting a very wide net. There’s a difference between those with active ties to the Gulen movement, and those who have had an affiliation in the past, or pass on his messages through education.”

According to Mehmet Yilmaz, a member of Turkey’s Supreme Board of Judges and Prosecutors, the country’s top judicial body, the government has been investigating certain individuals for the past two years. Yilmaz told the BBC that nearly 800 judges and prosecutors have been taken into custody, including two members of Turkey’s Constitutional Court.

“The violent intervention by members of the same group in military made it clear that they are part of an armed terrorist organization,” Yilmaz said, adding, “The risk these people pose is high. We have solid evidence [that these people are members of the Gulen movement] which we will make available.”

One analyst says recent events will deepen “the rift within the security establishment” at a time when Turkey is facing grave regional security concerns.

“There have always been rumors about Gulenist infiltration into the army,” Gönül Tol, founding director of the Middle East Institute’s Center for Turkish Studies, wrote in a column for The New York Times. “But the high number of generals among the arrested coup plotters […] indicates a broader participation, possibly including ultra secular and nationalist factions. This suggests a division not only between the secular and the Islamist camp but also within the secular camp in the army.”

“The fundamental problem in Turkey is polarization — between those who support and those who oppose Erdogan. This polarization is worse now and it’s a recipe for civil war,” Seckin added.

Turkey’s NATO partners fear that the purges in the military could diminish its capabilities to thwart the threat posed by ISIS.

“This constitutes a major loss of expertise and institutional memory at a time of heightening security challenges,” Fadi Hakura, an associate fellow at the London-based think tank Chatham House, wrote on the organization’s website. “The government’s replacements of key staff with less qualified loyalists will rupture the institutional integrity and professionalism of the military establishment.”

Erdogan has previously attempted to reform the Turkish constitution. While it is too early to assess the long-term impact of his latest actions, the stakes are high. Not only will his next steps affect millions of Turkish people, it could also affect the country’s international commitments in the fight against ISIS and its involvement in the global refugee crisis. White House press secretary Josh Earnest said Turkey’s allies will be “closely watching” Erdogan’s next moves.

Turkey’s parliament approved a three-month state of emergency plan this week, insuring unprecedented executive powers to Erdogan. The measure allows the president and his cabinet to bypass parliament when drafting new laws. Moreover, Deputy Prime Minister Numan Kurtulmus announced that country was suspending its participation in the European Convention of Human Rights.

While these measures might appear radical, officials have insisted that the lives and freedoms of citizens would not be affected and pointed to France who recently took similar measures following terror attacks in the country.

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