(MOSCOW) — A failed Soviet-era spacecraft that became trapped in Earth’s orbit by mistake more than 50 years ago is forecast to make a crash landing back on Earth in the early morning hours of Saturday, according to space experts.
Cosmos 482, launched in 1972 as part of the Soviet Union’s Venera program, which intended to explore Venus, is expected to return to Earth at 3:34 a.m. ET, according to SatTrackCam Leiden, a satellite tracking station in Leiden, the Netherlands.
But because of the uncertainty with its decaying orbit, the lander could come down as early as Friday evening and as late as Saturday afternoon, according to estimates from the European Space Agency, SatTrackCam Leiden and The Aerospace Corporation.
As of Thursday, the landing location was estimated to be anywhere between 52 N and 52 S latitude, according to NASA. This large swath contains the United States, as well as most of the continents on Earth.
Since 70% of the planet is covered with water, it’s likely the probe will land in the ocean but there is a small chance it could hit a populated area.
The craft is about 3.2 feet across and weighs about 1,190 pounds.
The risk of Cosmos 482 striking people on the ground is low, but not impossible, Jonathan McDowell, an astronomer at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, wrote on his website last month.
“No need for major concern, but you wouldn’t want it bashing you on the head,” McDowell wrote.
Cosmos 482 experienced a successful initial launch on March 31, 1972, and temporarily orbited Earth.
However, the unmanned spacecraft did not achieve sufficient velocity to launch into a Venus transfer trajectory, NASA said, and the payload — or the portion of the craft significantly related to the craft’s primary mission — was unable to exit Earth’s orbit.
Astronomers hypothesize that a malfunction on a timer caused the engine to burn prematurely, NASA said.
The spacecraft separated into four pieces. Two of the pieces, which remained in low orbit, decayed within 48 hours. Orbital decay refers to an incremental decrease in altitude, gradually closing a craft’s distance to Earth, according to NASA.
The other two pieces — including the large lander probe — became stuck in Earth’s higher orbit. It has experienced orbital decay for decades, NASA said, and that decay has brought it close enough to reenter the planet’s atmosphere around May 10.
Because the probe was designed to withstand entry into Venus’ atmosphere — which is 90 times denser than Earth’s — it is possible that parts of it could survive reentry and continue onward to the planet’s surface, according to NASA.
Astronomers are increasingly monitoring space junk left near Earth during launches of satellites and other spacecraft. There are currently more than 1.2 million known pieces of space debris, 50,000 of which measure more than 4 inches across, according to a 2025 report by the European Space Agency.
“Even if we created no new space debris, it would not be enough to prevent a runaway series of collisions and fragmentations,” the ESA said in a statement.
ABC News’ Matthew Glasser contributed to this report.
Copyright © 2025, ABC Audio. All rights reserved.
